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ANALYSIS-Turkey braces for further Kurdish unrest |
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Written by By Paul de Bendern - Reuters
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Wednesday, 05 April 2006 03:41 |
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A week of deadly clashes between pro-Kurdish protesters and security forces in Turkey's southeast has renewed fears of a return to the violence of the 1990s.
Thousands of youths have fought running street battles with police across the mainly Kurdish southeast as well as in Istanbul. Sixteen civilians, including children, have died.
The unrest comes at an awkward time for Turkey, which last October began negotiating membership of the European Union.
The violence was triggered by the funerals of 14 rebels of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), who were killed in clashes with security forces.
Analysts say the unrest also reflects local anger over high unemployment, poverty and Ankara's refusal to grant more autonomy to the region bordering Iraq, Iran and Syria.
It was the worst civil unrest since the mid-1990s, at the height of a campaign by the PKK to seek greater Kurdish rights.
Newspapers and analysts on Tuesday warned of further unrest.
"The youth are like a bush that can be set fire to at any instigation. It (the southeast) has become a swamp where the mosquitos are breeding," said Dogu Ergil, head of the liberal think-tank TOSAM.
"Fortunately the majority of Kurds do not want violence but normalisation. They want to build up their lives after a traumatic decade and a half," he said.
Tens of thousands of troops have been reinforced across Turkey and the government said it would not bow to terrorists.
"Those traitors have emerged again because they know the ground is beginning to slip beneath their feet and they have been buried by history. These are their final convulsions," Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan said in a speech.
Ankara, like the EU and the United States, regards the PKK as a terrorist organisation responsible for the deaths of more than 30,000 people since it launched its armed campaign for an ethnic homeland in 1984. Many Kurds sympathise with the PKK.
A NEW CAMPAIGN?
Clashes between PKK and security forces have generally focused on the southeast, although they have steadily risen since 2004 when the PKK abandoned a unilateral ceasefire. The authorities blame the latest riots on the PKK.
Left-leading Cumhuriyet newspaper said the PKK was planning to use the Kurdistan Liberation Hawks (TAK), a guerrilla group close to the PKK, to focus their operations on cities by organising bomb and arson attacks and other protest actions.
A bomb blast killed one person and injured 13 others in central Istanbul last Friday. It was blamed on TAK.
William Hale, a professor of political sciences at London University's SOAS college, doubted the riots marked a turning point for Turkey, a nation of 72 million.
"There's a lot of discontent but provided security forces handle it sensibly it shouldn't be a major problem. At the moment it's random anarchy rather than a directed political movement," Hale said.
Hale said the government faced a difficult task in improving economic conditions in the southeast -- Turkey's poorest region.
"When Kurds do not even invest in the southeast how can the government convince businessmen to invest there? It would have to bribe industrialists to get them there," Hale said.
EU VS SECULARISTS
The riots come at a tricky time for Turkey, which is entering difficult EU negotiations. The ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), with roots in political Islam, is also facing growing political opposition ahead of elections in 2007.
The EU has repeatedly urged Ankara to grant more cultural and linguistic rights to its 12 million Kurds. Under pressure, the AKP has passed some reforms, but implementation is patchy.
Kurdish political parties want talks with the government.
The powerful secularist establishment, which includes the army, deeply distrusts the AKP for its Islamist roots and does not think it takes a hard enough line against separatists.
Analysts say the latest unrest will give the military ammunition in its campaign against the PKK after seeing their power clipped by EU membership adjustments. Ankara lifted emergency rule in the southeast in 2002.
The armed forces, which have intervened several times in Turkish politics, are concerned that an independent, oil-rich Kurdistan may emerge in neighbouring northern Iraq and inspire Kurds in Turkey to seek greater autonomy.
"Kurds want to remain in Turkey but they want the country to be part of the EU. If they see that Turkey doesn't go down that road and they see increasing levels of freedoms in northern Iraq, that will be attractive for them," analyst Ergil said. |