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Turkish PM signals fresh drive for EU |
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Written by Financial Times
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Monday, 19 January 2009 11:40 |
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Turkey’s prime minister arrived in Brussels on Sunday aiming to revive the country’s stalled bid for European Union membership, which is under threat from tensions over Cyprus, political stasis within Turkey and waning EU enthusiasm for enlargement.
Recep Tayyip Erdogan is making his first visit to EU headquarters since December 2004, when he secured the opening of accession talks after tense negotiations. Almost immediately, a series of political crises distracted Turkey from the reforms needed for accession, EU opinion became more overtly hostile, and a sense of mutual disillusion set in.
The coming year will be critical. In December, a report by the International Crisis Group urged both sides to “break out of this downward spiral before one or the other breaks off the negotiations, which could then well prove impossible to start again”.
The biggest uncertainty lies in the outcome of peace talks between Greek and Turkish Cypriots. A settlement would remove one of the biggest hurdles to Turkish accession. But if talks fail and Turkey does not open ports to Greek Cypriot traffic by this year’s deadline, it could face calls to suspend membership talks entirely.
Negotiations could in any case grind to a halt on technical grounds. Unless Turkey accelerates reforms and the EU agrees to open talks on areas of negotiation blocked by Cyprus or other countries, there will soon be no more chapters to open.
Mr Erdogan appears to be fighting back, this month appointing Egemen Bagis – a close aide – as EU chief negotiator. The role was previously held by Ali Babacan, the foreign minister, despite his evident lack of time among other commitments.
The recent launch of Kurdish-language broadcasting on state television, efforts to mend relations with the minority Alevi religious community, and parliament’s adoption of a long-delayed national reform programme also suggest the government wants to inject new life into EU-sponsored reforms.
But the key question is whether Mr Erdogan’s commitment to EU accession will extend to tackling the most contentious issues, or whether he simply aims to do enough to avoid a breach.
The burst of reform that won Turkey credibility and a start to membership negotiations took place when Abdullah Gul, now in the largely ceremonial post of president, was driving the process.
Sinan Ulgen, head of a think-tank in Istanbul, said EU leaders’ meetings with Mr Erdogan would try to “instill in him a sense of urgency” but added that accession would not be “part of his grand strategy” unless he trusted the EU to deliver on its promise of eventual membership.
Other commentators are more optimistic. The columnist Mehmet Ali Birand wrote that Mr Bagis’s appointment could signal a fresh push for the EU. But because the new negotiator’s main qualification was his proximity to Mr Erdogan, he added, it depended “whether or not the prime minister has really made a decision”.
If he is determined, Mr Erdogan still has to battle against party political tensions that make it difficult to pass even the least controversial legislation, and scepticism over whether the EU will repay Turkish efforts with membership on reasonable terms.
However, many Turks still feel a strong attraction to the EU and a conviction that membership is the best way to achieve internal change. “We need to be pushed,” said Elif Bilgi Zapparoli, head of EFG Securities in Istanbul.
“I want Turkey to be an EU member for social issues – democracy, and democratic values,” said Sani Sener, chief executive of the airport operator TAV. “In the end Turkey has to be part of Europe. |